"Kittens Against Humanity" in 3. . . 2. . . 1. . .
(and hey, "Passable Exploding Calicos". . . .)
Hendrik Wehr 2015-01-26T05:01:52-05:00
We want Translation! We want Translation! wow as a strech goal this would be awesome! PLEASE!!!!!
Mette 2015-01-26T05:28:45-05:00
I am not an English native speaker, but I really don't want a translation.
Also, I don't understand what should be translated?
I don't think the manual will be that big as the game seems to be easy to learn and the cards don't seem to have too much text on it anyway.
I would rather have it that the cards are laminated for example.
Also, if they get translated, I don't want the Dutch version, but the English one.
I can not stand translated things as they most of the time lose jokes or just seems very awkward.
ANDRES P. S. 2015-01-26T05:33:15-05:00
4M SG...
spanish traslation...
10$ shipping
EU friendly...
Blegueni 2015-01-26T05:34:47-05:00
I think that a lot of people are waiting to back only to be the 100.000th backer.
Don't you think ?
This explain the slowness of these last hours.
Corneal Pendulum 2015-01-26T05:40:16-05:00
Don't worry guys. Once a big youtuber/ social media platform persona speaks about this project BOOOM we'll be instantly over 100,000 in hours!
Mette 2015-01-26T05:43:37-05:00
I think it is quite a normal thing that kickstarters get backed less and less backers each day. The first few days always has the most backers.
Even if the project gets 2000 backers or 50 000 dollars backers per day for the next 24 days, thats still a lot of backers and a lot of money to be made. Of course, it will not that much, but I still think around 5M dollars should be possible and I expect to it to have the most backers ever as well by the end.
Doug Orr 2015-01-26T06:00:54-05:00
@Corneal Pendulum
Phillip DeFranco on YouTube already made a video about it as the main news story last Wednesday...guy has got 3.4 million subs and the video has over 300k views...
Alex Cole 2015-01-26T06:14:40-05:00
Any chance of adding more collectors decks.. I would be interested in purchasing a signed copy?
Nicholas Orr 2015-01-26T06:20:01-05:00
A cool alternate deck would be "Plastic Cards" (I pay AU$30 for a std deck of playing cards, instead of $3 for the paper kind...) they are so awesome, slippery and smooth like ;)
Looking forward to playing this game with the guys #AwesomeSauce
Corneal Pendulum 2015-01-26T06:20:16-05:00
@Doug Thxs I used to subscribe to him a few years ago when I had to time to listen to mainstream pop news.... It would be nice if more people promoted this game! :D
(not that we need the promotion to reach the stretch goal~ we still have 24days!)
Niall Crallan 2015-01-26T06:21:09-05:00
Looks to me like the estimates of $26M by the end of the backing period was based on the assumption that the amount backed would be proportional to time (so $1M by day 1 -> $5M by day 5) when it's quite obviously going to trail off like a quadratic or something.
Sean Sullivan 2015-01-26T06:43:22-05:00
2nded on more signed decks would love the chance!
Peter S. 2015-01-26T06:47:05-05:00
I think people are overestimating how much they underestimated how the funding would go. I'm sure they knew it would blast through the 10k goal even if they didn't expect $2M in 24 hours.
Byron "FIREFLY 4 ZCIDE S4" CC 2015-01-26T06:57:27-05:00
@niall you are new to kickstarter so ill forgive your ignorance, but kickstarters dont just trail off... there is a surge at the start and also in the last 48 hours, once the reminders go out. so in fact the daily values will actually look like a parabola by the end. http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/elanlee/exploding-kittens/#chart-exp-projection
Byron "FIREFLY 4 ZCIDE S4" CC 2015-01-26T07:01:21-05:00
Criswell The Tiny Epic Weatherman 2015-01-26T07:01:40-05:00
1023 to go for NSFW 56 - that means we only need 9 binary digits to count this down
James K 2015-01-26T07:08:13-05:00
@Byron, while there may be a slight increase at the end, Nial is correct on how the kick track trending works. This campaign will not reach 36 million. In fact, the campaign most likely will not reach much more than a tad above 4 without one hell of a new stretch goal.
Be care when you claim someone else is ignorant, you may just as well be the ignorant one.
James K 2015-01-26T07:08:36-05:00
*26
Criswell The Tiny Epic Weatherman 2015-01-26T07:10:38-05:00
K Wirick, you are correct - it does not say what I claimed it said which was KS considers project promotion as spam unless it's an update from a creator - however it did used to say that - since then they have relaxed their definition of spam - but, if someone promotes another project, it tends to open the floodgates for everyone doing it, and while no one person was actually link flooding here, we did see an overall link flood
Alberto Rodriguez 2015-01-26T07:10:54-05:00
I just hope the cards will be made similar to the material and quality of cards against humanity
Byron "FIREFLY 4 ZCIDE S4" CC 2015-01-26T07:16:42-05:00
@james i shall look forward to you eating your prediction after this is over... i do not think it will reach 36... that is the very upper limit... however i think the 6-8 range is very likely
Jack "StarCat Hero" Henderson 2015-01-26T07:27:00-05:00
Final stretch guys! Come on we can do this!!
Adrian Michael Smith 2015-01-26T07:31:46-05:00
@alberto - Didn't they say they had partnered with the makers or distributors of Cards against Humanity? Hopefully this means that the quality will be the same. @Jack - hopefully not the final stretch. With 25 days to go surely we will see at least one more stretch goal?
@Mark Wow haha now that's a good trend guessing :)
Jeffrey McBride 2015-01-26T08:13:10-05:00
Need a video game play demo or a sample "print and playplay" like many others have offered in past when they have faith in their product. We really have no idea what we are getting for a fairly high priced card game besides a quote from designer saying "so so good" and it has been play tested. If the game shows a little bit of itself I'll maintain my $40 pledge for one copy of it. If they keep everything super secret like this and don't "pull their pants down" I'll probably pull my pledge. I think their may be a divide between video game design vs creating a balanced card game that maintains a bit of fun and replay ability. Let's see a play test video showing it is "so so fun". Fingers crossed because I really do want to be part of something great! Show us our faith is well placed! And throw in a playmate since I'm being so demanding in this post :) Might as well throw in a decent stretch goal/reward with your runaway and historic success. Get some fun stretch goals in place so I can double my pledge!
Eric 'Trinkets' Baumgarten 2015-01-26T08:13:14-05:00
I expected to be at 100,000 when I woke up this morning. Maybe by lunch time.
Rod "BaKhan" Mitchell 2015-01-26T08:20:08-05:00
With the weekend over I expect that things will pick up again. So far this morning we've been averaging 100 backers an hour so we'll see.
David Zhang 2015-01-26T08:25:05-05:00
Just a hair over 900 backers to go!
sarah simmons 2015-01-26T08:26:14-05:00
So very close, hopefully over this next weekend, should push it over the 100.000 mark. I keep finding my self checking in
I agree; 11 hours was a very conservative estimate. People will see how close to 100k we are and will pledge like crazy. Hopefully it'll continue that trend once it gets past 100k!
Elan Lee 2015-01-26T08:59:48-05:00
Hello Exploding Kickstarters!
We originally thought the idea of sharing an idea with strangers was terrifying, but you amazing people have shown us that it can be the most validating force in the world. Thank you!
I’m writing this to share with you that today is my birthday, and you’re so so very close to the stretch goal of one hundred thousand backers. No pressure, but if you hit it today, I might explode in a burst of happiness.
BEST. BIRTHDAY. EVER.
Rod "BaKhan" Mitchell 2015-01-26T08:59:50-05:00
I think at a certain point this willbe self sustaining. More new people getting yet more new backers! This is pretty awesome to watch!
Rod "BaKhan" Mitchell 2015-01-26T09:00:27-05:00
@Elan, happy birthday!
Kannika Garcia 2015-01-26T09:02:23-05:00
Happy Birthday Elan
Mette 2015-01-26T09:02:31-05:00
Happy birthday Elan!
Thewarstore.com 2015-01-26T09:03:04-05:00
Just keep the Kittens away from the birthday cake... or that volatile bottle of nitroglycerine you have stored on your shelf and you should be perfectly safe.
Ben Ames 2015-01-26T09:04:31-05:00
well now I want the stretch goal even more. Happy Birthday Elan!!!
Cal "Blackhawk" Rasmussen 2015-01-26T09:05:01-05:00
@Elan. We will get you that birthday present of 100k backers plus! Happy Birthday!
Constantine Gus Spathis 2015-01-26T09:09:45-05:00
OH GOD, I SEE KITTENS!
Kamil Basara 2015-01-26T09:11:52-05:00
Card idea:
CAN OF DEADLY REGULAR AIR! - Spray exploding kitten away!
Justin Warrenfeltz 2015-01-26T09:14:49-05:00
Happy Birthday, Elan! Will be sharing this project again today on Facebook so we can hit that 100k (and maybe $4mil on the same day?!) for ya.
Chris Tufano 2015-01-26T09:27:27-05:00
Been on the fence about this one... To be honest, I'm having trouble seeing how the game play would be fun. I guess I just dont understand it. I'll try it though.. I mean, after how much it exploded I feel obligated to. I swore I'd never back another KS again... So, this one is somewhat cheap ($35) and with so many backers its guaranteed to be a fun ride no matter what
Happy Birthday Elan!!! Will share the love on my FB account again today. :-D
GK 2015-01-26T09:41:48-05:00
@Jeffrey McBride I think most people here are probably fans of The Oatmeal's art and comedy style. I honestly bet not too many people are expecting a deep and balanced card game that's been heavily play-tested, though of course I may be wrong.
Brett MacDonald 2015-01-26T09:49:33-05:00
@GK. Bought into it for the concept/art... but I definitely expect a balanced game. Doesn't have to be deep... but fun and balanced is a must!
Thewarstore.com 2015-01-26T09:49:51-05:00
@GK I agree, the game will be fun, but it is mostly meant to play tongue & cheek. We will see :)
Eric 'Trinkets' Baumgarten 2015-01-26T09:52:59-05:00
I think we could have a Skynet Marshmallow Bumper Bot car that drives us safely away from the Exploding Kittens.
BruceP - The Chameleon 2015-01-26T09:58:14-05:00
Less than 700 backers to go! Nice b-day present for Elan. :)
Rod "BaKhan" Mitchell 2015-01-26T10:01:10-05:00
173 backers in the last hour! Its gonna be a hot time tonight!
Gareth Evans 2015-01-26T10:05:08-05:00
It looks like 100 000 backers will be reached by tonight :)
BruceP - The Chameleon 2015-01-26T10:06:46-05:00
@Gareth Evans,
And if by "tonight", you mean "in a couple of hours", then yep. :) (It's 7:05am on Monday here on the west coast of the US)
Rod "BaKhan" Mitchell 2015-01-26T10:07:40-05:00
We should reach 100k backers inside of 4 hours!
Cal "Blackhawk" Rasmussen 2015-01-26T10:09:32-05:00
If you haven't shared the project yet now is the time to do it. Let's get those 100k asap!
Adam Rançon 2015-01-26T10:14:35-05:00
Using data from Kicktraq, one can see that the distribution of backers and money is given by nice exponential laws starting from the second day.
For the money : M(t)=1 194 509 Exp(-0.591*(t-2))
For the # of backers : B(t)=30 364 Exp(-0.597*(t-2))
are the best fit, with t is the day, and these fits only apply for t>=2.
From this, my estimated total amount collected is $4 008 161
and the total number of backers 102 396.
Unless, of course, the new stretched goals change the appeal to new backers.
NB: to compute the total sums, do not forget to include t=1 in the sums.
BruceP - The Chameleon 2015-01-26T10:25:40-05:00
@Adam R,
Most every Kickstarter project, especially big ones, have a big ramp up over the last 2 days. ;) Most usually finish somewhere in the middle of the Kicktraq projection (not trend).
Mr. PACG 2015-01-26T10:28:27-05:00
Share, share, and share some more! Push this project out to your friends, social media, email, forums... 100,000 backers today!
Cal "Blackhawk" Rasmussen 2015-01-26T10:28:44-05:00
600 to go.
Allie Wicklund 2015-01-26T10:30:57-05:00
I'm actually new to The Oatmeal, but the cards made me laugh. I backed the project because I have friends who would be thoroughly entertained with this game. 600 to go ^^
Happy Birthday, Elan!
Mark 2015-01-26T10:35:59-05:00
Should hit 100k backers soon!
Rod "BaKhan" Mitchell 2015-01-26T10:39:41-05:00
@Adam R, is that your prediction for today, or for the whole project?
Adam Rançon 2015-01-26T10:40:33-05:00
@BruceP,
sure, backers are more than statistics, and this kind of behavior is not included in a naive analysis. I just liked the fact that a nice exponential law works well to describe the data right now. Maybe it will be correct until the 18th of february ;-)
Jeff "Great Cane of Doom"™ Saxton 2015-01-26T10:44:20-05:00
Not to pile on with extraneous ideas, but how about the Dave Bowman card? "My god, it's full of kittens".
Adam Rançon 2015-01-26T10:47:23-05:00
@Rod M,
that would be my prediction for the whole project (in fact, my prediction was done assuming the funding campain never stops, but in our case, 31 days is close to infinity for the purpose of the calculation), assuming that this exponential behavior stays true, which might not be the case.
Rane Wallin 2015-01-26T10:49:25-05:00
Please let there be a Ferncer Ferst! card
Jeremy Oliver 2015-01-26T10:53:36-05:00
Ermahgerd! Ferncer Ferst!
Rod "BaKhan" Mitchell 2015-01-26T10:54:13-05:00
Adam R, I don't believe the model you are using will prove to be accurate. This will not follow the traditional exponential pattern. I don't have enough info yet for my final prediction but it will be closer to 8mil for sure.
Adam Rançon 2015-01-26T11:00:37-05:00
@Rod M,
unless the new stretched goals really change the deal, I don't quite see why 100 000 more people would come (since the average is $39 per backer), that are not already here.
But we should see in a few days if this exponential law still works :)
@Adam: Isn't it less of a law and more of a.... suggestion of reality? Life is extremely dynamic after all, and a lot can change in 24 days.
Greg Hancock 2015-01-26T11:02:56-05:00
99,505 backers!
Push! Puuuuuuuuusssssshhhhhhh!
Brett MacDonald 2015-01-26T11:04:14-05:00
Hurray! Very pumped we are hitting the 100,000 backer SG so quickly. Happy birthday to Elan indeed! I wonder what SG they have next? Probably a 5 mill SG?
Adam Rançon 2015-01-26T11:10:40-05:00
@Evan: replace law by distribution if you prefer. Just meant that the data is well described by this kind of probability distribution function.
psyco363 2015-01-26T11:11:06-05:00
i think the next stretch goals are 5 mill, 7 mill 10.5 mill and Final Stretch Goal 13.5 mill so the the Golden number One KS project ever
David Eells 2015-01-26T11:12:18-05:00
Up to #9 all-time, #4 game by dollars. Nearly 40,000% funded!
@Brett @psyco363 now that's a bit of a stretch :P
106k.
Jonathan Brown 2015-01-26T11:13:55-05:00
OK I am in, and here is my suggestion for an inexpensive, relatively easy, but fun stretch goal. Maybe someone has suggested it already, but I am not reading 3,000 comments to find out :-)
Throw in a half dozen blank cards so people can make/draw their own.
A package of just kitten cards, anywhere from 4 to 12, to alter difficulty level and change up the game play might be interesting.
psyco363 2015-01-26T11:17:43-05:00
@Tsveta Koleva yes also that 106k backer goal, but i think when we reach 7 mill we reach also 106k backers =)
BruceP - The Chameleon 2015-01-26T11:17:50-05:00
@Adam R,
Check some of the other projects on Kicktraq. Especially the big ones. You'll see the curves don't continue on a downward trend through the life of the projects. It typically flattens out in the middle, then ramps up at the end.
That'll give ExK 2 #1 Records
- Most Backed
- Highest Percent
Adam Rançon 2015-01-26T11:28:06-05:00
@BruceP,
I hear you, and I'm sure it can change, especially if there are new challenging goals.
But right now, for example, we are at half the 7th day (10h to go, if I read kicktraq correctly), and only 940 new backers yet. I predict 1500 backers in total today ;-)
Waiting for the inevitable Crossover cards.
"Kittens Against Humanity" in 3. . . 2. . . 1. . .
(and hey, "Passable Exploding Calicos". . . .)
We want Translation! We want Translation! wow as a strech goal this would be awesome! PLEASE!!!!!
I am not an English native speaker, but I really don't want a translation.
Also, I don't understand what should be translated?
I don't think the manual will be that big as the game seems to be easy to learn and the cards don't seem to have too much text on it anyway.
I would rather have it that the cards are laminated for example.
Also, if they get translated, I don't want the Dutch version, but the English one.
I can not stand translated things as they most of the time lose jokes or just seems very awkward.
4M SG...
spanish traslation...
10$ shipping
EU friendly...
I think that a lot of people are waiting to back only to be the 100.000th backer.
Don't you think ?
This explain the slowness of these last hours.
Don't worry guys. Once a big youtuber/ social media platform persona speaks about this project BOOOM we'll be instantly over 100,000 in hours!
I think it is quite a normal thing that kickstarters get backed less and less backers each day. The first few days always has the most backers.
Even if the project gets 2000 backers or 50 000 dollars backers per day for the next 24 days, thats still a lot of backers and a lot of money to be made. Of course, it will not that much, but I still think around 5M dollars should be possible and I expect to it to have the most backers ever as well by the end.
@Corneal Pendulum
Phillip DeFranco on YouTube already made a video about it as the main news story last Wednesday...guy has got 3.4 million subs and the video has over 300k views...
Any chance of adding more collectors decks.. I would be interested in purchasing a signed copy?
A cool alternate deck would be "Plastic Cards" (I pay AU$30 for a std deck of playing cards, instead of $3 for the paper kind...) they are so awesome, slippery and smooth like ;)
Looking forward to playing this game with the guys #AwesomeSauce
@Doug Thxs I used to subscribe to him a few years ago when I had to time to listen to mainstream pop news.... It would be nice if more people promoted this game! :D
(not that we need the promotion to reach the stretch goal~ we still have 24days!)
Looks to me like the estimates of $26M by the end of the backing period was based on the assumption that the amount backed would be proportional to time (so $1M by day 1 -> $5M by day 5) when it's quite obviously going to trail off like a quadratic or something.
2nded on more signed decks would love the chance!
I think people are overestimating how much they underestimated how the funding would go. I'm sure they knew it would blast through the 10k goal even if they didn't expect $2M in 24 hours.
@niall you are new to kickstarter so ill forgive your ignorance, but kickstarters dont just trail off... there is a surge at the start and also in the last 48 hours, once the reminders go out. so in fact the daily values will actually look like a parabola by the end. http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/elanlee/exploding-kittens/#chart-exp-projection
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/coolminiornot/zombicide-season-3/#chart-daily this is pretty much how every project i have backed has acted... there is always people that say its dead and wont go any further but the amount of people that wait until the last 48hours is amazing
1023 to go for NSFW 56 - that means we only need 9 binary digits to count this down
@Byron, while there may be a slight increase at the end, Nial is correct on how the kick track trending works. This campaign will not reach 36 million. In fact, the campaign most likely will not reach much more than a tad above 4 without one hell of a new stretch goal.
Be care when you claim someone else is ignorant, you may just as well be the ignorant one.
*26
K Wirick, you are correct - it does not say what I claimed it said which was KS considers project promotion as spam unless it's an update from a creator - however it did used to say that - since then they have relaxed their definition of spam - but, if someone promotes another project, it tends to open the floodgates for everyone doing it, and while no one person was actually link flooding here, we did see an overall link flood
I just hope the cards will be made similar to the material and quality of cards against humanity
@james i shall look forward to you eating your prediction after this is over... i do not think it will reach 36... that is the very upper limit... however i think the 6-8 range is very likely
1k...
99,000 backers!!!!!
999
Final stretch guys! Come on we can do this!!
@alberto - Didn't they say they had partnered with the makers or distributors of Cards against Humanity? Hopefully this means that the quality will be the same. @Jack - hopefully not the final stretch. With 25 days to go surely we will see at least one more stretch goal?
Hope to see and heard more from creator.
954 more to go. Tick-tock. Tell your friends!
Also, ref Kickspy: http://www.kickspy.com/projects/elanlee/exploding-kittens
Also ref Kickspy: kickspy.com/projects/elanlee/exploding-kittens
@Mark Wow haha now that's a good trend guessing :)
Need a video game play demo or a sample "print and playplay" like many others have offered in past when they have faith in their product. We really have no idea what we are getting for a fairly high priced card game besides a quote from designer saying "so so good" and it has been play tested. If the game shows a little bit of itself I'll maintain my $40 pledge for one copy of it. If they keep everything super secret like this and don't "pull their pants down" I'll probably pull my pledge. I think their may be a divide between video game design vs creating a balanced card game that maintains a bit of fun and replay ability. Let's see a play test video showing it is "so so fun". Fingers crossed because I really do want to be part of something great! Show us our faith is well placed! And throw in a playmate since I'm being so demanding in this post :) Might as well throw in a decent stretch goal/reward with your runaway and historic success. Get some fun stretch goals in place so I can double my pledge!
I expected to be at 100,000 when I woke up this morning. Maybe by lunch time.
With the weekend over I expect that things will pick up again. So far this morning we've been averaging 100 backers an hour so we'll see.
Just a hair over 900 backers to go!
So very close, hopefully over this next weekend, should push it over the 100.000 mark. I keep finding my self checking in
900
Yay so close!
Looking forward!!! So great! Yay!
Project is getting a new backer about once every 45 seconds, so to get to 10,000 it should take us approximately 11 more hours at this pace.
I expect that number to grow much faster over the next hour. I'd guess 4 -5 hours to 100k.
so... close... 0.0
I agree; 11 hours was a very conservative estimate. People will see how close to 100k we are and will pledge like crazy. Hopefully it'll continue that trend once it gets past 100k!
Hello Exploding Kickstarters!
We originally thought the idea of sharing an idea with strangers was terrifying, but you amazing people have shown us that it can be the most validating force in the world. Thank you!
I’m writing this to share with you that today is my birthday, and you’re so so very close to the stretch goal of one hundred thousand backers. No pressure, but if you hit it today, I might explode in a burst of happiness.
BEST. BIRTHDAY. EVER.
I think at a certain point this willbe self sustaining. More new people getting yet more new backers! This is pretty awesome to watch!
@Elan, happy birthday!
Happy Birthday Elan
Happy birthday Elan!
Just keep the Kittens away from the birthday cake... or that volatile bottle of nitroglycerine you have stored on your shelf and you should be perfectly safe.
well now I want the stretch goal even more. Happy Birthday Elan!!!
@Elan. We will get you that birthday present of 100k backers plus! Happy Birthday!
OH GOD, I SEE KITTENS!
Card idea:
CAN OF DEADLY REGULAR AIR! - Spray exploding kitten away!
Happy Birthday, Elan! Will be sharing this project again today on Facebook so we can hit that 100k (and maybe $4mil on the same day?!) for ya.
Been on the fence about this one... To be honest, I'm having trouble seeing how the game play would be fun. I guess I just dont understand it. I'll try it though.. I mean, after how much it exploded I feel obligated to. I swore I'd never back another KS again... So, this one is somewhat cheap ($35) and with so many backers its guaranteed to be a fun ride no matter what
@Elan
Happy Birthday
Happy Birthday Elan!!! Will share the love on my FB account again today. :-D
@Jeffrey McBride I think most people here are probably fans of The Oatmeal's art and comedy style. I honestly bet not too many people are expecting a deep and balanced card game that's been heavily play-tested, though of course I may be wrong.
@GK. Bought into it for the concept/art... but I definitely expect a balanced game. Doesn't have to be deep... but fun and balanced is a must!
@GK I agree, the game will be fun, but it is mostly meant to play tongue & cheek. We will see :)
I think we could have a Skynet Marshmallow Bumper Bot car that drives us safely away from the Exploding Kittens.
Less than 700 backers to go! Nice b-day present for Elan. :)
173 backers in the last hour! Its gonna be a hot time tonight!
It looks like 100 000 backers will be reached by tonight :)
@Gareth Evans,
And if by "tonight", you mean "in a couple of hours", then yep. :) (It's 7:05am on Monday here on the west coast of the US)
We should reach 100k backers inside of 4 hours!
If you haven't shared the project yet now is the time to do it. Let's get those 100k asap!
Using data from Kicktraq, one can see that the distribution of backers and money is given by nice exponential laws starting from the second day.
For the money : M(t)=1 194 509 Exp(-0.591*(t-2))
For the # of backers : B(t)=30 364 Exp(-0.597*(t-2))
are the best fit, with t is the day, and these fits only apply for t>=2.
From this, my estimated total amount collected is $4 008 161
and the total number of backers 102 396.
Unless, of course, the new stretched goals change the appeal to new backers.
NB: to compute the total sums, do not forget to include t=1 in the sums.
@Adam R,
Most every Kickstarter project, especially big ones, have a big ramp up over the last 2 days. ;) Most usually finish somewhere in the middle of the Kicktraq projection (not trend).
Share, share, and share some more! Push this project out to your friends, social media, email, forums... 100,000 backers today!
600 to go.
I'm actually new to The Oatmeal, but the cards made me laugh. I backed the project because I have friends who would be thoroughly entertained with this game. 600 to go ^^
Happy Birthday, Elan!
Should hit 100k backers soon!
@Adam R, is that your prediction for today, or for the whole project?
@BruceP,
sure, backers are more than statistics, and this kind of behavior is not included in a naive analysis. I just liked the fact that a nice exponential law works well to describe the data right now. Maybe it will be correct until the 18th of february ;-)
Not to pile on with extraneous ideas, but how about the Dave Bowman card? "My god, it's full of kittens".
@Rod M,
that would be my prediction for the whole project (in fact, my prediction was done assuming the funding campain never stops, but in our case, 31 days is close to infinity for the purpose of the calculation), assuming that this exponential behavior stays true, which might not be the case.
Please let there be a Ferncer Ferst! card
Ermahgerd! Ferncer Ferst!
Adam R, I don't believe the model you are using will prove to be accurate. This will not follow the traditional exponential pattern. I don't have enough info yet for my final prediction but it will be closer to 8mil for sure.
@Rod M,
unless the new stretched goals really change the deal, I don't quite see why 100 000 more people would come (since the average is $39 per backer), that are not already here.
But we should see in a few days if this exponential law still works :)
Nothing left to offer as a stretch goal than 106k. Don't expect anything grand.
@Adam: Isn't it less of a law and more of a.... suggestion of reality? Life is extremely dynamic after all, and a lot can change in 24 days.
99,505 backers!
Push! Puuuuuuuuusssssshhhhhhh!
Hurray! Very pumped we are hitting the 100,000 backer SG so quickly. Happy birthday to Elan indeed! I wonder what SG they have next? Probably a 5 mill SG?
@Evan: replace law by distribution if you prefer. Just meant that the data is well described by this kind of probability distribution function.
i think the next stretch goals are 5 mill, 7 mill 10.5 mill and Final Stretch Goal 13.5 mill so the the Golden number One KS project ever
Up to #9 all-time, #4 game by dollars. Nearly 40,000% funded!
465 to go...
We still have to get to $4M first... the last one was at two so maybe at the 4, 6, 8 and 10 millions there will be crazy stuff ( if we get that far.)
@Brett @psyco363 now that's a bit of a stretch :P
106k.
OK I am in, and here is my suggestion for an inexpensive, relatively easy, but fun stretch goal. Maybe someone has suggested it already, but I am not reading 3,000 comments to find out :-)
Throw in a half dozen blank cards so people can make/draw their own.
A package of just kitten cards, anywhere from 4 to 12, to alter difficulty level and change up the game play might be interesting.
@Tsveta Koleva yes also that 106k backer goal, but i think when we reach 7 mill we reach also 106k backers =)
@Adam R,
Check some of the other projects on Kicktraq. Especially the big ones. You'll see the curves don't continue on a downward trend through the life of the projects. It typically flattens out in the middle, then ramps up at the end.
It's more or less a bell curve... kind of.
99,600... the wait is killing me. It's like hot potato, or a kitten with a balloon; I'm waiting for it to explode so I can figure out whats next.
@Evan lol
So is Reading Rainbow the current Most funded KS?
105,857 Backers
That'll give ExK 2 #1 Records
- Most Backed
- Highest Percent
@BruceP,
I hear you, and I'm sure it can change, especially if there are new challenging goals.
But right now, for example, we are at half the 7th day (10h to go, if I read kicktraq correctly), and only 940 new backers yet. I predict 1500 backers in total today ;-)